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Russia's Economy: Ukraine War Squeeze
The Russian financial authority has released guidelines outlining nine conditions under which banks are permitted to temporarily restrict ATM cash withdrawals.
According to the Central Bank of Russia's website, starting September 1, 2025, banks issuing payment cards must verify, during ATM cash withdrawals, if the individual is being coerced by scammers and if the account holder is indeed performing the transaction.
It's important to note that the central bank's directive emerged amidst ongoing issues with ATMs, online platforms, and the rapid payment infrastructure. These problems, stemming from mobile and internet service interruptions nationwide, have been a recurring issue for months, often accompanied by voice communication and navigation difficulties.
Officials attribute the internet disruptions to precautions taken against drones operated via mobile internet, coinciding with an increase in successful operations by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) within Russia, specifically targeting its defense sector.
Official figures released in July indicate that the amount of physical currency circulating within Russia was nearing a record peak of 16 trillion rubles (€170 billion). Analysts suggest this reflects a tendency among Russian citizens to brace themselves for potential future difficulties.
Concurrently, Russia and the Ukrainian territories it controls are facing a worsening fuel shortage, driven by increasing petrol costs. Recent information indicates that at least three refineries have ceased functioning entirely. Various assessments suggest that effective strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have decreased production by 10-15%.
As reported by the Russian-language "Vot Tak" outlet, which is part of the Centre for International Broadcasting TVP (Polish Public Television), fuel shortages have been noted in various areas of Russia.
In certain regions, gas stations are experiencing extremely long lines, and a coupon system has been implemented recently. Russian news outlets are also reporting that gasoline is increasingly being sold exclusively to companies and enterprises.
In a Thursday interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta, a newspaper under Kremlin control, Andrei Gangan, who heads the monetary policy department at the Bank of Russia, stated that "the Ministry of Finance factored in the reduced oil price when it updated its projections in the spring, and the budget now incorporates a cautious price of $56 per barrel."
He also acknowledged that Russia's economy "has used up nearly all of its existing manufacturing abilities, supply chains, and physical structures, and, crucially, almost its entire workforce – it's now hard to recruit more people."
Gangan stated that "we require a break and fresh strategies for enhancing workforce productivity."
In 2025, Russia's budget shortfall ballooned to a record 4.9 trillion rubles (€42 billion). With over 40% of the budget already allocated to war expenses, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that a cessation of hostilities could lead to economic contraction by 2027.
According to sources within the Russian government who spoke with Reuters, tax hikes are unavoidable. They stated, "Without them, we won't be able to balance our budget, even if we reduce military expenditures. Income from oil and gas is decreasing, and the economy isn't capable of completely offsetting this."
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