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Trump's Kim Summit Gamble
Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, suggested on the 22nd that he might meet with U.S. President Donald Trump if the aim of denuclearization was dropped. This has sparked interest in the possibility of an unexpected meeting between the two leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju next month. During his initial term, Trump met with Kim twice in 2018, once in Singapore and again in Vietnam. He also crossed the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) to meet Kim at Panmunjom in June 2019. Trump has consistently highlighted his rapport with Kim and voiced his openness to discussions. Experts suggest that a meeting between the U.S. and North Korean leaders is plausible, considering Trump’s personal ambition to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.
Since the previous election, Trump has stated, "My relationship with Kim Jong-un was good, and I understand him better than anyone else," and "He'll miss me." He refrained from making any negative comments about Kim. On his inauguration day, January 20th of this year, he commented, "Now he's a 'nuclear power'" and "Kim Jong-un was fond of me and is likely happy about my potential return." Although the term "nuclear power" is distinct from the officially recognized "nuclear weapon states" under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), like the U.S., Russia, China, France, and the U.K., it was seen as an indication that the Trump administration's strategy regarding North Korea's nuclear ambitions would deviate from the Biden administration's emphasis on denuclearization. During his confirmation hearing, Defense Minister Pete Hegseth also described North Korea as a "nuclear power."
On March 31st, Trump suggested potential communication between the U.S. and North Korea, stating, "There is communication with Kim Jong-un." News outlets reported that the U.S. government had made several attempts to send Trump's personal letters to the North Korean mission at the United Nations via the "New York channel," but North Korean diplomats declined to receive them. The White House neither confirmed nor denied this, saying, "Trump is willing to exchange letters with Kim Jong-un and desires progress similar to the 2018 Singapore meeting." During the South Korea-U.S. summit in Washington last month, Trump expressed his intention to meet with Kim Jong-un, adding, "I want to meet him this year."
Those in diplomatic circles believe a visit by Kim Jong-un to South Korea during APEC is highly unlikely, but they haven't ruled out a surprise meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea at an alternative site such as Panmunjom. Reportedly, Trump sees a significant meeting with Kim Jong-un as a key diplomatic opportunity he wouldn't want to pass up. A Washington, D.C. insider stated, "For Trump, even just one photograph with Kim Jong-un could be presented as a 'diplomatic win' and touted as a success in advance of the midterm elections next November.”
The central issue is if Trump will agree to the requirement of giving up nuclear weapons. Despite Trump referring to North Korea as a "nuclear power," the U.S. government continues to pursue denuclearization. Yet, Trump could choose not to focus on denuclearization as a reason to meet with Kim Jong-un. Aside from denuclearization, another possible topic for a U.S.-North Korea meeting is the retrieval of remains. North Korea pledged to work with the U.S. to recover the remains of American war prisoners and missing soldiers at the Singapore summit and sent 55 boxes of remains in August of that year. The identities of over 100 U.S. soldiers have been verified from these remains, and the Defense Department under the Trump administration said, "Recovering remains is a positive way to re-establish communication between the U.S. and North Korea."
Even if the APEC summit falls through, Trump is still likely to seek a personal meeting with Kim Jong-un. He brought up the possibility of visiting China early next year during a phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the 19th, leading to suggestions that this could be a chance for such a meeting. Victor Cha, holding the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated at a press briefing on the 19th that a meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un in Beijing "could be one possibility."
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