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Trump claims US.-Iran agreements, Iran denies talks
U.S. President Donald Trump, who vowed to “reduce to ruins” power plants and other facilities if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, suddenly announced that the U.S. and Iran had had reached agreement on “almost all issues,” highlighting the possibility of ending the conflict. However, questions are arising about the substance of the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Iran’s counterpart, identified by Trump, dismissed the claims as “fake news.” Some analysts speculate that Trump is creating a smokescreen until additional troops arrive, and the shifting stance of Trump has intensified confusion surrounding the Iran situation.
On the morning of the 23rd, Trump posted on his social media platform, “Truth Social,” that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in “very productive talks” over the past two days and announced a five-day postponement of attacks on Iranian power plants and energy facilities. He stated that Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and others had negotiated with Iran’s top officials until the previous day, reaching agreements on 15 issues. Regarding Iran’s nuclear development program—the key issue—he claimed, “They will not have nuclear weapons,” and added that the highly enriched uranium Iran is believed to possess “will be taken directly once the agreement is finalized.”
However, shortly after Trump’s remarks became public, Iran denied holding any dialogue. The Iranian Foreign Ministry called Trump’s statement an attempt to “lower energy prices and buy time for his military plans.” Esmail Baghaei, the ministry’s spokesperson, stated, “No negotiations have taken place with the U.S. during this conflict.” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliamentary speaker identified by Trump as a negotiation counterpart, labeled the claims “fake news” on X (formerly Twitter), adding, “No negotiations have occurred with the U.S.,” and “Iran demands complete punishment that will make invaders regret their actions.” The Iranian government is reportedly explicitly demanding guarantees to prevent a recurrence of war, the closure of U.S. military bases in the Middle East, and compensation for damages.
Amid this, skepticism continues about the substance and feasibility of the negotiations. Issues reportedly proposed by the U.S., such as a five-year suspension of missile programs and a ban on uranium enrichment, are difficult for Iran to accept. Additionally, while Trump’s ultimatum deadline was set for the morning of the 24th, the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen immediately. Trump may have calculated that securing five more days to explore an exit strategy would be advantageous. International energy prices have surged due to the Iran situation, increasing political pressure from conservative factions ahead of the November midterm elections. Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters have also expressed significant backlash. After Trump confirmed the negotiations and declared a pause in attacks, oil prices plummeted, and the New York stock market closed higher.
However, given Trump’s history of launching military strikes during negotiations with Iran, there is also the possibility that he is executing a characteristic smokescreen tactic before a “decisive blow.” Currently, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit from U.S. Forces Japan is moving to the Middle East, and additional units from California State are being deployed. It cannot be ruled out that Trump judged more time was needed for the deployed troops to assemble. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing multiple officials, reported that “thousands of additional Marine troops are scheduled to arrive in the Middle East on Friday (the 27th), the deadline Trump set for the Strait of Hormuz’s reopening.” With approximately 50,000 U.S. troops, including an aircraft carrier strike group, deployed in the region, CENTCOM stated that military operations against targets in Iran are ongoing.
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